Canada Housing Split: Toronto Slips, Calgary Holds

Canada's housing market is "bumpy and uneven" in the middle of the fall buying season, according to a report released on Tuesday by RBC Economics. The author, assistant chief economist Robert Hogue, says conditions vary sharply from city to city, shaped by confidence, affordability, demographics, job markets and inventory.

 

City by city

• Toronto: a gentle recovery that ran from spring through August has stalled. In September, resales fell another 5.2% from August and the benchmark price slipped 0.5% month over month. Hogue blames renewed US-Canada trade tensions and worries about long-term interest rates
• Montreal: inventory is up 20% from a year ago, driven by the strongest wave of new sellers in six years. That is holding back price growth
• Vancouver: still "squarely in correction mode," with prices falling steadily since early 2025. Active listings are near a decade high, and RBC thinks further price drops may be needed to bring in buyers, possibly into 2027
• Calgary: broadly stable. Single-detached resales rose 4.4% with prices down about 1%, while condos were weak (resales down 14.3%, prices down 8.3%)
• Edmonton: prices stabilised after earlier declines

The bigger picture

In September, most local boards reported fewer resales, including Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Toronto, Ottawa, Vancouver and Montreal. Local board headlines this week also show Vancouver-area sales down 8.4% and Calgary sales down 3.8% in September.

What RBC expects

Some pent-up demand could be released in the months ahead if affordability improves and Canada's economy handles the trade war. But the road ahead, Hogue says, is likely to be bumpy and uneven across markets.