Australian Home Values Fall 1.2% in October, Fastest Downturn in 40 Years

November 2, 2026 | Australian home values fell 1.2% in October, the seventh consecutive monthly decline, Cotality reported on Monday. National values are now 6.7% below their March peak, a drop of about A$63,400 for the median dwelling.

How fast is the fall?

Cotality says the combined capital cities have dropped 8.1% in seven months, faster than any downturn in the last four decades. Over the same seven months, the 2022-23 downturn saw capital city values fall 7.0%. The record peak-to-trough fall was 8.2% in the 2017-19 downturn, so the current slide has nearly matched it in a much shorter time.

Which cities are falling most?

• Brisbane: -2.0% in October and -6.1% over the quarter

• Perth: -1.7% and -5.7%

• Sydney: -1.6% and -4.7%

Brisbane and Perth have overtaken Sydney as the fastest-falling capitals. Melbourne's median dwelling value is A$773,027 on Cotality's measure, and values there are 7.3% below five years ago, while Sydney values are 1.5% below October 2021.

 

 

Do the indices agree?

Not entirely. PropTrack, the other main index, shows Adelaide's 0.6% fall as the month's largest, puts Brisbane and Perth about 6% below their peaks, and finds Sydney has the deepest fall from peak among the capitals, at 6.7% against 6.1% for Melbourne.

What about sales and lending?

Cotality estimates home sales over the past three months were 23% lower than a year earlier and 18% below the five-year average. Equifax data show mortgage demand fell 19.2% year on year in September.

What does Cotality say?

Research director Tim Lawless said buyers have much more stock to choose from and more leverage, but they are noticeably absent, reflecting low confidence and serviceability barriers. Cotality expects subdued conditions through the rest of 2026 and into 2027, with further rate rises possible.

What comes next?

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its cash-rate decision on Tuesday, November 3. The rate is 4.60% and economists widely expect a rise to 4.85%. CommBank expects the RBA to then hold in December and February.