UK House Prices Up Only 0.5% in October: Nationwide

Nationwide's House Price Index, published on October 30, shows UK house prices rising just 0.5% over the year to October, down from 0.8% in September and the weakest reading since January 2024. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices were flat on the month.

What are the key numbers?

• Annual growth: 0.5%, from 0.8%

• Monthly change: 0.0% seasonally adjusted

• Average price: £273,566 (unadjusted), against £274,251 in September

 

 

What does Nationwide say?

Chief economist Robert Gardner said the market weakened because of an uncertain economic outlook, pressure from energy prices and expectations that borrowing costs could rise. He noted that income growth has continued to outpace house price growth, which preserves some of the affordability improvement of the past two years. Nationwide's earlier forecast for 2026 had been annual growth of 2% to 4%.

How does it fit with other data?

Lloyds showed prices flat at 0.0% in September, Zoopla found buyers taking 44 days to sell and over a third of homes in areas where prices are falling, and Rightmove reported the average two-year fixed rate at 5.55%.

What about the Budget?

The October 28 Budget left stamp duty and capital gains tax unchanged and launched the Your First Home scheme for spring 2027, which does little for the market in the near term.

What next?

The Bank of England's next rate decision is on November 5, with the base rate at 3.75%.