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Mortgage Applications Fall 2.7%; Purchases at 2025 Lows

  • by- Grihik
  • Oct 15, 2026
MBA says applications fell 2.7% as the 30-year rate hit 7.50%. Purchase demand is down 16% from a year ago and ARMs reached 10.5%
Mortgage Applications Fall 2.7%; Purchases at 2025 Lows

U.S. mortgage applications fell 2.7% in the week ending October 9, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday. The contract rate on conforming 30-year fixed loans was 7.50%, up from 7.49% and the highest since November 2023.

What are the numbers?

  • Purchase index: down 4% on the week and 16% below a year ago; purchase demand has now fallen for six straight weeks and is at its weakest since early 2025

  • Refinance index: down 0.4% and 56% below last year; eight straight weekly declines

  • Refinance share: 37.7% of applications, up from 37.0% because purchases fell faster

  • ARM share: 10.5%, the highest since October 2025

  • Other rates: jumbo 30-year 7.49% (from 7.39%), FHA 30-year 7.19% (from 7.14%), 5/1 ARM 6.54% (from 6.43%)

What does the MBA say?

Deputy chief economist Joel Kan said applications fell as rates moved higher, and that rates are now more than a percentage point above a year ago. He noted that borrowers lean on ARMs to lower their monthly payment, and that a 5% drop in FHA refinance applications explained much of the refinance weakness.

 

Why does the ARM share matter?

With the 5/1 ARM about 96 basis points below the fixed rate (our arithmetic), more buyers are trading lower starting payments for the risk of later resets.

What should we watch?

The next MBA survey comes October 21, and Freddie Mac's weekly rate is due today.

FAQ

What is the MBA 30-year rate? 7.50% for the week ending October 9. How far have purchase applications fallen? 16% below a year earlier.