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CRE Lenders' Mood Hits 3-Year Low: CREFC Index at 83.3

  • by- Grihik
  • Oct 12, 2026
The CREFC Q3 sentiment index fell 17.5% to 83.3, its lowest since 2023, as 92% of lenders expect rates to hurt business.
CRE Lenders' Mood Hits 3-Year Low: CREFC Index at 83.3

Quick answer: More pessimistic than at any time in three years. The CRE Finance Council's Q3 2026 sentiment index fell 17.5% to 83.3 from 101.0 in Q2, its lowest reading since Q3 2023, with all nine core questions weaker.

What changed from Q2 to Q3?

  • Rates: 92% of respondents expect mortgage and cap rates to weigh negatively on their businesses, up from 53% in Q2 and the most negative reading since Q3 2022

  • Economy: 62% expect the US economy to perform worse over the next 12 months, up from 24% in Q2 and the highest share since Q1 2025

  • Biggest drops: the interest rate and economic outlook questions

 

What worries them?

Members cited concerns beyond the next Fed decision: inflation, fiscal deficits and the outlook for long-term borrowing costs.

Why does sentiment matter?

Lender mood tends to lead lending behaviour. A low reading often signals tighter underwriting and fewer new loans in the months ahead.

Our read

The jump in the share expecting rates to hurt, from about one in two to nearly all, is a sharper shift than the headline index suggests (our observation).