UK Housing's Mixed Signals: Prices Flat, Approvals Down 16%

Why Are UK Housing Numbers Sending Opposite Messages?

Quick answer: Because they measure different things. Lloyds says new buyer enquiries are at their highest since February, yet Bank of England data show August mortgage approvals down 16% from a year ago, and surveyors report weaker demand. Prices are flat.

What does each source say?

• Lloyds (house prices): unchanged at 0.0% in September, with the average UK home at £298,441 against £298,395 in August. Northern Ireland leads annual growth at 7.4%
• Lloyds (enquiries): new buyer enquiries are the highest since February, said mortgages director Andrew Asaam
• Bank of England: mortgage approvals for house purchase in August were 16% lower than a year earlier, according to Knight Frank's head of UK residential research, Tom Bill
• RICS survey: new buyer enquiries fell to a net balance of -22% from -18%, and the price balance slipped to -32%

Why the clash?

Enquiries are early interest, while approvals are completed lending decisions. People may be looking more but struggling to get or afford a loan at higher rates. RICS and Lloyds also survey different groups at different times.

What is driving it?

Mortgage rates have risen since the airstrikes on Iran at the end of February and the energy-price shock that followed. Bill described the year as one of rising energy prices and stalling house prices.

What are forecasters saying for 2026?

Savills expects a 2% fall, Knight Frank expects a 1.5% rise, and Zoopla expects growth to slow to about 0.5% by year-end.

What should buyers and sellers do?

Compare mortgage offers carefully and price realistically. In a flat market, the gap between asking price and what sells matters more than the headline index.